The rebound of 2019 continued in March

The rebound of 2019 continued in March, as fears of a slowdown were overcome by continuing solid economic data.  After a few nail-biting moments, ‘Brexit’ received a long term delay, and may have even been effectively canceled.  President Trump continues to hint at a ‘big deal’ with China.  Employment numbers and economic growth seem solid, while inflation continues to behave.  All of this, and the Fed appears to have made a dovish pivot – or at least, seems to have stopped raising rates for a while.

   

Stocks & Bonds

The U.S. stock market rallied in March, although bonds rallied almost as much.  Both stock and bond market seem to approve of Powell’s new dovishness.  Foreign stocks have not done quite as well – economic data in Europe are much weaker than in the U.S.  German GDP shrank in the 3rd quarter of 2018, then was slightly positive in the 4th quarter, just barely avoiding an official recession.  By the numbers:


Commodities & Currencies

Oil prices continued to rise in March, gaining an additional 4.63%, and for the year are up a whopping 32%.  Strife in Venezuela continues to remove supply.  Also, OPEC continues its production cuts in conjunction with Russia (not an official member of OPEC, but currently working with them).  The U.S. dollar rose in March, and is up about 1% for the year.  So far, the burgeoning federal deficit has not scared investors away from the U.S., as we continue to look like a better growth story than Europe or Japan, and emerging markets are vulnerable to any trade shocks from China.  Gold declined slightly in March, and is nearly flat for the year to date.

Economy

The ISM Manufacturing PMI in March was 55.3%, up 1.1 percentage points from the February reading of 54.2.  The non-manufacturing, or services, index came in at 56.1%, which is 3.6 percentage points lower than the February reading of 59.7.  Both numbers continue to show expansion, although the pace in the non-manufacturing survey declined relative to last month.  The Commerce Department released final GDP data for 2018.  They revised 4th quarter growth down to 2.2%, after an initial estimate of 2.6%.  For the year, U.S. GDP grew an underwhelming 2.9%, despite a historic tax cut.  Still, this is a better number than 2.2% growth in 2017.

The National Association of Realtors reports that existing-home sales in March fell by 4.9%% from the rate in February, and are 5.4% lower than they were a year ago.  The median home price rose 3.8% to $259,400 from a year ago.  Median home prices have been rising for the past 85 months.  The average 30-year mortgage rate in March was 4.27%.  Distressed sales (foreclosures and short-sales) were 3% of total sales in March, down from 4% last month, and down from 4% a year ago.

Commentary

The chart below, courtesy of the Federal Reserve, shows how the U.S. unemployment rate has ebbed and flowed since 1948.  As you can see, unemployment is near historical lows, which is good news for anyone who has a job, or wants a job.  At the same time, since investors are more worried about tomorrow than yesterday, the low unemployment rate is actually cause for pause.  The shaded areas are periods of time when the U.S. economy entered a recession – oddly enough, most occur when things are going well, and when unemployment has fallen.

The reasons that the U.S. enters a recession are complex, and not completely understood.  From an unemployment perspective, however, when unemployment drops, typically companies have to pay more to attract workers.  As this happens, corporate profits hit headwinds, which causes the stock market to worry.  In addition, as workers experience higher salaries, they can afford to buy more, which causes inflation to move up.  When the Fed has to raise rates to counter inflation, this also causes the stock market to worry.  So low unemployment and rising wages can cause a chain reaction that leads to lower stock prices.

So far, this has not happened.  In fact, the Fed has indicated that it does not see enough inflation to warrant higher interest rates, giving the stock market some room to breathe.  In addition, although wage growth has been relatively strong, consumer spending remains restrained.

The future remains impossible to predict.  However, it does seem reasonable to be more cautious as an investor, as history shows that periods of low unemployment are often followed by periods of rising unemployment and slowing economic growth.

As always, please feel free to forward this to friends and family.

Sincerely,
Greg

Data Sources:

www.standardandpoors.com – S&P 500 information

www.msci.com – MSCI EAFE information

www.barcap.com – Barclays Aggregate Bond information

www.bloomberg.com – U.S. Dollar & commodities performance

www.realtor.org – Housing market data

www.bea.gov – GDP numbers

www.bls.gov – CPI and unemployment numbers

www.commerce.gov – Consumer spending data

www.napm.org – PMI numbers

www.bigcharts.com – NYMEX crude prices, gold and other commodities


This material was prepared by Greg Naylor, and all views within are expressly his. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied upon for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax liability. This is not a solicitation or recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. The S&P500, MSCI EAFE and Barclays Aggregate Bond Index are indexes. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. The information is based on sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. Investing involves risks and investors may incur a profit or a loss. Past performance is not an indication of future results. There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will outperform a non-diversified portfolio in any given market environment. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Listed entities are not affiliated.